Copy Trading Master’s Winning Strategies Review — Episode 84

Easy Copy, Smart Trade! Discover the winning strategies of our popular traders.

1. Copy Trading Master’s Introduction

User Nickname: Monkey

Trader’s Profile: https://www.lbank.com/copy-trading/lead-trader/LBA3D77398

Trading Style: Mid-to-Short Term Swing

2. Trade Operation Recap

Cross Margin 30x Short on $TRUMPSOL, Entry Price 11.96 USDT, Exit Price 11.066 USDT, Single Trade ROE +224.25%. See image below:

3. Trade Review

3.1 Market Background

1) On March 12, 2025, U.S. February CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year, below market expectations, marking the first drop below 3% since August 2024. Core CPI fell to 3.1%, hitting a four-year low. Energy and transportation service price increases slowed, while housing costs remained stable. Super core CPI dropped to 3.9%, the lowest since October 2023.

Cooling inflation boosted rate-cut expectations, with interest rate markets pricing in a 68% chance of a Fed rate cut in June. The forecast for three rate cuts in 2025 remains unchanged. U.S. Stocks slightly rebounded on the news, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.49% and 1.22% respectively, but the Dow fell for the third consecutive day, reflecting lingering market uncertainty.

Additionally, tariff policies under the Trump administration triggered risk-off sentiment. On March 12, the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminum, prompting retaliation threats from Canada, the EU, and China. Markets fear Trump may leverage a recession to pressure the Fed into rate cuts to lower U.S. Treasury yields and ease fiscal deficits. U.S. total debt now stands at 123% of GDP, with the deficit continuing to worsen.

Concerns over U.S. stock market overvaluation are also growing, as the seven largest tech stocks now account for about 30% of the S&P 500. Wall Street has lowered Q1 earnings forecasts for the S&P 500, with rising economic uncertainty and intensifying AI competition potentially undermining the bullish outlook for tech stocks. In contrast, European and Hong Kong markets have outperformed due to their lower valuations, attracting a shift in global capital flows.

2) On March 13, 2025, the February Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month, marking the smallest increase since July of last year, below the market expectation of 0.3%. Year-on-year, PPI rose by 3.2%, slightly below the forecast of 3.3%. Core PPI fell by 0.1% month-on-month, its first decline in seven months.

Food prices surged by 1.7%, with egg prices soaring by 53.6%, acting as a major driver. However, energy prices fell, with gasoline down 4.7%. Meanwhile, service costs declined by 0.2% due to falling trade service margins, although healthcare service costs remained resilient.

Following the data release, the U.S. Dollar Index dipped briefly, U.S. stock futures edged lower, and the 10-year Treasury yield fluctuated. Markets are now closely watching the upcoming PCE data to assess inflation trends and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

3) Despite February’s CPI data coming in below expectations and signaling clear signs of easing inflation, Morgan Stanley warned that core PCE inflation will likely remain elevated, and the Fed may only cut rates once this year, possibly in June.

Morgan Stanley analysts noted that while softening service sector prices contributed to the slower CPI growth, core goods prices continued to rise, particularly in categories such as apparel, computer software, and tobacco. Based on the CPI data, February core PCE is projected to rise by 0.32% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year.

JPMorgan echoed similar views, expecting core PCE to remain high, with the 3-month annualized growth potentially climbing to 3.3%. Market participants are awaiting the PCE release to better gauge the Fed’s policy trajectory.

3.2 Trade Analysis

Between March 12 and March 15, 2025, BTC exhibited a range-bound trend, with higher highs and higher lows forming on the 4-hour chart. On the evening of March 14, TRUMP experienced a surge but formed consecutive upper wicks near a resistance level, indicating significant supply at that price area. Considering BTC’s range-bound pattern, it may present an opportunity to look for short positions over the weekend. The trading context is illustrated in the chart below:

1) Based on past experience, Saturdays are often periods of localized activity for altcoins, while market sentiment tends to normalize gradually by Sunday afternoon. On March 16 at noon, after a period of narrow consolidation, BTC broke downward, dragging TRUMP below its short-term trendline and the 30-day moving average.

On the 1-hour chart, TRUMP’s rebound was limited with weak momentum, indicating a lack of buying interest. Therefore, a short position was initiated at the current price level. For risk management, the stop-loss was placed near a key resistance level above the moving average to mitigate the risk of a trend reversal. The take-profit target was set at a significant support level below to ensure a favorable risk-reward ratio. See chart below:

2) The following morning, during the accelerated downward move, the price hit the preset take-profit target, successfully closing the trade. Subsequently, the market rebounded near the key support level as shown in the chart below:

3.3 Winning Strategies Summary

Swing Trading Entry and Exit Strategies

In short-term swing trading, the 1–4 hour candlestick chart can effectively balance trading frequency and market noise, enabling traders to capture relatively stable profit zones within mid-short-term trends. Compared to ultra-short-term trading, 1–4 hour swing trading relies more on trend-following and key technical signals to improve win rates and optimize risk-reward ratios. This article will explore entry and exit strategies suitable for the 1–4 hour timeframe, as well as methods for setting take-profit, stop-loss, and risk management.

1) Trend Identification and Trade Direction Confirmation

Before engaging in 1–4 hour swing trading, it is essential to confirm the overall market trend. The core of trend trading lies in following the trend, rather than attempting to catch tops or bottoms. Therefore, properly identifying trends is crucial.

Trend Identification Methods

1. Moving Average System

• The 20 EMA, 50 EMA, and 200 EMA are commonly used for trend assessment:

• If the price is above the 50 EMA/200 EMA and the moving averages are aligned in a bullish formation, the market is in an uptrend, and long positions should be prioritized.

• If the price is below the 50 EMA/200 EMA and the moving averages are aligned in a bearish formation, the market is in a downtrend, and short positions should be prioritized.

• A golden cross or death cross between the 20 EMA and 50 EMA can serve as a short-term trend reversal signal.

2. High-Low Structure

• Uptrend: Price continues to create higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL).

• Downtrend: Price continues to create lower lows (LL) and lower highs (LH).

• As long as the trend structure is not broken (e.g., highs are not broken downward or lows are not broken upward), trend-following strategies should be applied.

3. Volume Analysis

• In an uptrend, increasing volume indicates trend sustainability.

• In a downtrend, increasing volume suggests strengthening bearish momentum and potential trend continuation.

2) Entry Strategies

1. Breakout Trading Strategy (For Strong Trending Markets)

• Enter a trend-following trade after key levels (previous highs/lows, significant moving averages, Fibonacci levels) are successfully broken.
• Ensure the breakout is accompanied by increased volume to enhance reliability.
• Wait for a breakout-retest confirmation before entering to reduce the risk of a false breakout.

Example: BTC 4-Hour Breakout Trade

• BTC formed a key resistance level at $50,000 with multiple failed tests.
• The price broke above $50,000 with strong volume, then retested $49,800 and held steady.
• After confirming valid support, consider going long near $50,000, setting a stop-loss below $49,500, and targeting $51,500-$52,000.

2. Pullback Confirmation Trading Strategy (For Trends With Corrections)

• After breaking resistance or support, price often pulls back to confirm the level before stabilizing and providing an entry point.
• Use Fibonacci retracement levels (0.382, 0.5, 0.618) to identify potential pullback buy/sell zones.
• Look for decreasing volume during the pullback and increasing volume on the rebound to strengthen entry confirmation.

Example: ETH 1-Hour Pullback Confirmation

• ETH broke above $2,000 and pulled back to $1,980, testing previous resistance turned support.
• The price held steady at $1,980, forming a long lower wick, indicating strong buying support.
• Enter long, set a stop-loss below $1,970, and target $2,050-$2,100.

3. Range-Bound Trading Strategy (For Sideways/Range-bound markets)

• Buy near support and sell near resistance within the range.
• Go long near support levels and short near resistance levels.
• Combine with candlestick patterns (Pin Bar, Engulfing, etc.) to confirm reversal signals.

Example: SOL 4-Hour Range Trading

• SOL is trading within a $90-$100 range, with multiple rebounds forming near $90.
• Enter long, set a stop-loss below $88, and target $98-$100.

3) Exit Strategies

1. Take-Profit Target Setting

• Common methods for setting take-profit targets:

• Key resistance/support levels: Reduce position size or exit once price touches significant resistance/support.

•Fibonacci extension levels: Use the 1.272 or 1.618 extension levels to set take-profit targets.

•Moving averages: In trend-following trades, take profit when the price breaks below short-term moving averages such as the 20 EMA.

Example: BTC Take-Profit Management

• After going long on BTC at the $50,000 breakout, set the target at $51,500 (previous high resistance).

• If the price continues to rise, adjust the take-profit to $52,500 (1.618 extension level).

2. Stop-Loss Placement and Risk-Reward Management

• Technical stop-loss: Place stops just outside key support/resistance levels to avoid being stopped out by market noise.

• Fixed-percentage stop-loss: Set stop-loss at 2%-3% of account capital according to your risk management rules.

• Trailing stop:

• As the price rises, trail your stop upwards to lock in profits.

• For example, when long BTC, place the initial stop below the 50 EMA. If the price rises, adjust the stop to the new support level.

Example: ETH 4-Hour Trailing Stop

• After entering a long ETH position, as the price rises by 100 units, move the stop up to breakeven to secure a risk-free trade.

• As the price approaches the target area, trail the stop further to lock in partial profits while holding the remaining position for further upside.

4) Risk Control and Trading Discipline

• Ensure the risk-reward ratio is no less than 1:2: If the stop-loss is $10, the take-profit target should be at least $20.

• Avoid overtrading: On the 1–4 hour timeframe, avoid frequent entries and exits to reduce the impact of market noise.

• Combine market sentiment and fundamentals: Even short-term trades should factor in macro conditions to avoid reversals caused by unexpected events.

• Strictly follow the trading plan: Avoid emotional trading by clearly defining entry and exit rules before every trade.

5) Conclusion

The 1–4 hour swing trading strategy balances trend-following with flexible adjustments. By using technical analysis to identify key entry and exit points, traders can improve their win rates. Breakout, pullback confirmation, and range-bound trading strategies each apply to different market conditions, so traders should select the appropriate strategy based on the prevailing trend. Additionally, proper take-profit, stop-loss, and risk management are essential to achieving long-term, stable profitability. Maintaining trading discipline, optimizing the risk-reward ratio, and adapting to changing market environments are key to consistently profiting from swing trading.

Note: Personal opinion, for reference only. Opportunities and risks abound, always do your research before investing.

Click here to download for iOS or Android

Website: https://www.lbank.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LBank_Exchange
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lbankcom/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/LBankExchange
Telegram: https://t.me/LBank_en
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/lbank
Medium: https://lbank-exchange.medium.com/
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/LBank2021/