Copy Trading Master’s Winning Strategies Review — Episode 76
Easy Copy, Smart Trade! Discover the winning strategies of our popular traders.
- Copy Trading Master’s Introduction
User Nickname: Ray
Trader’s Profile: https://www.lbank.com/copy-trading/lead-trader/LBA3D77497
Trading Style: Short-term swing trading
2. Trade Operation Recap
Full position 25x leverage shorting AI16Z, entry price 1.491 USDT, closing price 1.455 USDT, single trade yield +60.37%. At the support level, full position 25x leverage flipping to long AI16Z, entry price 1.451 USDT, closing price 1.482 USDT, single trade yield +53.42%. As shown below:
3. Trade Review
3.1 Market Background
January 10, 2025, The U.S. reported 256,000 new non-farm jobs in December, significantly exceeding the forecast of 165,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than both expectations and November’s 4.2%. The strong non-farm data led to a hawkish tone among Federal Reserve officials. Additionally, market speculation that Trump might declare an economic emergency to introduce tariff policies intensified inflation concerns. Analysts noted that with the improving labor market in recent months, the Fed’s focus has fully shifted to inflation.
Robust U.S. economic data triggered a global bond sell-off. Investors began doubting whether central banks worldwide could implement significant rate cuts as planned. Traders also reduced bets on European Central Bank rate cuts, expecting only three cuts by June. Concerns about the UK economy grew, causing British government bonds to fall for five consecutive days. The 10-year UK bond yield hit its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, and the 30-year yield reached a high not seen since 1998, outpacing increases in U.S. and German bond yields. The British pound fell for four straight days, hitting a one-year low. As expectations for a Fed rate pause grew, the U.S. Dollar Index surged to nearly 110, its highest in two years, on the day of the non-farm report.
January 14, 2025, Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for December rose 3.3% year-on-year, the highest since February 2023, surpassing November’s 3% but falling short of the expected 3.5%. Despite the slightly lower-than-expected growth, the year-on-year increase was much higher than the 1.1% seen in 2023. Following the PPI release, markets experienced a sharp reversal. The Dollar Index initially fell by over 20 points but quickly rebounded by nearly 20 points. U.S. equity futures rose briefly before dipping slightly, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped sharply before rebounding. Spot gold prices spiked by about $5 before falling approximately $9. Federal funds futures pricing on Tuesday suggested the Fed would cut rates only once this year.
January 15, 2025, The U.S. released critical CPI data, showing signs of cooling core inflation. December’s CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year, in line with expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, slightly above forecasts. However, core CPI growth slowed to 3.2% year-on-year, marking the first decline in six months and falling below expectations and previous values. The month-on-month increase of 0.2% also came in below expectations. After the data release, traders adjusted their expectations for the Fed’s first rate cut, moving it forward from September to July. The projected cumulative rate cut for the year increased from 28 basis points to 40 basis points, returning to levels seen before the non-farm employment report.
Additionally, U.S. bank earnings were strong. JPMorgan Chase reported record-high profits, while Citigroup and Goldman Sachs exceeded market expectations. The combination of cooling inflation data and solid bank earnings boosted investor confidence, leading to simultaneous gains in the U.S. equities and bonds.
3.2 Trade Analysis
January 7, 2025 — January 13, 2025, AI16Z daily chart shows a continuous decline from the high to near the support level, followed by a corrective rebound driven by favorable data. Near the resistance level and the 30-day moving average, it faced rejection, forming consecutive upper shadow candlesticks. Trading context as shown in the chart:
On January 10, 2025, the U.S. released December nonfarm data, showing 256,000 new jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 165,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than both the forecast and November’s 4.2%. The strong nonfarm employment data drew market attention, and Federal Reserve officials generally shifted to a hawkish stance. Meanwhile, rumors spread that Trump might declare an economic emergency to push tariff policies, further exacerbating inflation concerns.
As a result, the crypto market broadly declined on January 13. However, as BTC stabilized around $89,000, the overall crypto market halted its decline and began to stabilize.
Between January 14 and January 15, driven by favorable macroeconomic data, the crypto sector experienced a strong rebound, with prices rising to the resistance zone and approaching the 120-day moving average level. At the same time, BTC rebounded close to $100,000 before pulling back. As reversal signals appeared (forming a classic evening doji star pattern), it was an opportune moment to consider short positions. As shown below:
On January 16, 2025, during the Asian trading session, BTC remained in a high-level consolidation state with relatively small pullbacks. Driven by favorable data, market sentiment was significantly active. Although the AI sector showed some need for correction on the chart, considering that at 21:30 the U.S. would release initial jobless claims data for the week ending January 11, it was more prudent to opt for ultra-short-term trades to avoid potential volatility in the U.S. stock market later in the evening.
In the afternoon of January 16, after missing better short-entry points, focusing on 15-minute support and resistance levels for short-term trades still provided favorable risk-to-reward ratios. As a leading project in the AI sector, AI16Z has sufficient liquidity, making trading strategies based on support and resistance levels highly effective.
On the chart, the market showed a slow bearish trend with weak rebounds. When the price was rejected near resistance and moving averages, short positions were opened during the rebound, with stop losses set near the trendline, waiting for the trend to accelerate downward. As the price approached support, short positions were closed, and limit buy orders were placed in advance.
Given a bearish short-term outlook for the AI sector, the holding strategy for long positions was more cautious. When prices rebounded to resistance and demand momentum clearly weakened, positions were decisively closed. As shown below:
3.3 Winning Strategies Summary
Advanced Trading: How to Increase Success Rate in Ultra-Short-Term Reversal Trades？
In ultra-short-term trading, reversal trades are a high-risk, high-reward strategy. Although countertrend operations seem to go against the principle of “following the trend,” accurately identifying trend turning points and the strength of price corrections can make reversal trading a high-probability strategy. The following explores trading techniques and how to use multidimensional analysis to improve the success rate of ultra-short-term reversal trades.
- Foundation of Trend Judgment The key to ultra-short-term reversal trading lies in identifying “false breakouts” or “overbought/oversold” zones. The strength of a trend can often be judged through key price areas, volume changes, and market sentiment. When the price moves far from support or resistance levels but shows signs of weakening momentum, reversal opportunities begin to emerge.
- Core Reversal Signals Ultra-short-term reversal trading focuses on 1-minute or 5-minute charts as core time frames but should be combined with higher timeframes (e.g., 15-minute or hourly charts) for trend direction. Once a large timeframe trend weakens, quick reversal signals on smaller timeframes become more actionable. Core signals include key candlestick patterns (e.g., engulfing, hammer), false breakouts, and reversals in overbought or oversold indicators.
- Reversal Trading and Risk Control Ultra-short-term reversal trades require precision in timing and entry points. When confirming reversal signals, tight stop-losses should be set to prevent significant drawdowns due to misjudgment or market volatility. Additionally, when a reversal occurs, clear profit targets should be established. Utilizing partial profit-taking or dynamic stop-loss adjustments helps secure profits.
- Basic Principles
1. Use Larger Timeframes to Judge Reversal Direction: Reversal signals are more reliable when the larger timeframe approaches resistance or support levels and the trend weakens.
2. Validate Reversal Strength on Smaller Timeframes: Observing the persistence of countertrend momentum on smaller timeframes helps confirm if the reversal has been established.
3. Prioritize Risk Control Over Profit Expectations: Due to the high frequency of ultra-short-term trades, strict stop-loss discipline should be maintained while ensuring a favorable risk-reward ratio.
While ultra-short-term reversal trading tests a trader’s sensitivity and execution, combining signal judgment across multiple timeframes with robust risk control methods can significantly improve the success rate. Mastering these trading techniques allows traders to maximize profit opportunities amid short-term market fluctuations.
Note: Personal opinion, for reference only. Opportunities and risks abound, always do your research before investing.
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