Copy Trading Master’s Winning Strategies Review — Episode 75

Easy Copy, Smart Trade! Discover the winning strategies of our popular traders.

1. Copy Trading Master’s Introduction

• User Nickname: BlingBling~
• Trader’s Profile: https://www.lbank.com/copy-trading/lead-trader/LBA3D77565
• Trading Style: Swing Trading

2. Trade Operation Recap

Full position with 5x leverage shorting ARB, opening price at 1.0565 USDT, closing price at 0.7707 USDT, single trade yield +135.26%. See the chart below for details:

3. Trade Review

3.1 Market Background

-December 11, 2024: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that November CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, in line with expectations, up from the previous 2.6%. Month-on-month, CPI rose by 0.3%, higher than October’s 0.2%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, increased by 3.3% year-on-year, remaining unchanged from October and meeting expectations. Core CPI also rose by 0.3% month-on-month, matching both the previous value and forecast, marking the fourth consecutive month of a 0.3% increase.

-December 16, Asian Trading Session: Ethereum saw a rapid surge, breaking its previous high of $4,090 and peaking at $4,115 before retracing. Despite Ethereum’s upward momentum, most altcoins failed to follow suit, indicating signs of market fatigue.

- December 18: Following the FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the federal funds rate target range from 4.5%-4.75% to 4.25%-4.5%, marking the second consecutive 25-basis-point rate cut. This was the third straight rate cut, with a total reduction of 100 basis points following a cumulative 525-basis-point hike between March 2022 and July 2023. Fed officials projected two additional 25-basis-point cuts in 2025 and the same for 2026, aligning with market expectations for two rate cuts next year, a significant drop from earlier forecasts of over six cuts.

December 20: According to Arkm data, Mt. Gox transferred 719.568 BTC, valued at approximately $69.87 million, to two new wallet addresses. On the same day, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the November PCE Price Index rose 2.4% year-on-year, up from 2.3% in October and the highest since July, though slightly below the expected 2.5%. The month-on-month increase was 0.1%, lower than the forecasted 0.2%.

January 7, 2025: The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its December 2024 monetary policy meeting, highlighting concerns among officials about higher-than-expected inflation and potential inflationary effects from policies following Trump’s return to office. These uncertainties suggested the Fed might slow the pace of rate cuts.

January 10, 2025: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a significant increase in December nonfarm payrolls, adding 256,000 jobs, the largest gain in nine months and well above the expected 165,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, better than the forecasted 4.2%. Following the release of the jobs data, market expectations for a January 29 rate cut diminished, with the next anticipated rate cut pushed back to October, suggesting only one cut this year.

January 15, 2025: The U.S. December CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations and up from 2.7% in November. Core CPI increased by 3.2%, slightly below the forecasted 3.3% and the previous value of 3.3%. After the CPI data release, traders expected the Fed to further ease policies, moving the projected timeline for the next rate cut forward to July, from an earlier forecast of September.

3.2 Trade Analysis

From November 1, 2024, to January 16, 2025, the ETH daily chart shows the following trends:

• Ethereum’s price surged continuously, reaching the $4,000–$4,100 range.
• It then rapidly dropped to $3,100 before rebounding to around $3,730, followed by another decline.
• After ETH fell to $2,930, a quick rebound ensued.

The trading background is illustrated in the chart below:

December 11, 2024: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that November’s CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, matching expectations, and slightly higher than the previous 2.6%. Core CPI increased by 3.3% year-on-year, remaining consistent with October’s figure and forecasts.

December 12, 2024: ARB rebounded sharply, reaching a peak price of $1.10. On the 4-hour chart, ARB broke below the ascending trendline (blue dashed line in the chart below) on December 10, followed by a sharp drop and subsequent rebound, which still failed to breach the trendline. At this point, a short position was considered.

December 13, 2024: ARB rebounded again, peaking at $1.07. However, it failed to surpass the previous day’s high of $1.10. During the pullback, a short position was opened. Refer to the chart below for details:

December 16, 2024: During the Asian trading session, Ethereum surged rapidly, breaking the previous high of $4,090 and reaching a peak of $4,115 before retreating. Despite Ethereum’s rise, most altcoins failed to follow, signaling market fatigue. ARB rebounded to a high of $1.05, and the short position was maintained.

December 18, 2024: Following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the federal funds rate target range from 4.5%-4.75% to 4.25%-4.5%, marking the second consecutive meeting with a 25-basis-point rate cut. This was the third consecutive rate cut, totaling 100 basis points, following a cumulative 525-basis-point hike from March 2022 to July 2023. As rate cut expectations weakened, the cryptocurrency market experienced a significant pullback.

January 7, 2025: The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its December 2024 monetary policy meeting, revealing concerns about higher-than-expected inflation and potential inflationary impacts of policies following Trump’s return to office. These uncertainties suggested a slower pace of rate cuts. Following the release, market confidence took another hit, leading to a sharp decline in U.S. equities and an accelerated pullback in cryptocurrency markets.

January 10, 2025: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that December’s nonfarm payrolls increased by 256,000, significantly exceeding the forecast of 165,000. The unemployment rate stood at 4.1%, better than the expected 4.2%. After the release of nonfarm payroll data, market expectations for a rate cut diminished. The latest projections suggested that the Federal Reserve would not lower rates at the January 29 policy meeting.

January 15, 2025: December CPI data showed a 2.9% year-on-year increase, matching expectations. Core CPI rose by 3.2%, slightly below the forecast of 3.3%.

Goldman Sachs analysts stated that although the latest CPI data might not be sufficient to make a January rate cut possible, it reinforces the view that the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle is not yet over. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management also suggested that the CPI data would not alter expectations for a rate pause at the end of January but should suppress some discussions about the possibility of the Fed raising rates.

January 16, 2025: Bitcoin, after retreating from the previous day’s high of $100,800, traded sideways around the $100,000 level. With the new U.S. president set to take office on January 20, significant market volatility was anticipated. At this point, ARB short positions were closed in batches to lock in profits. See the chart below for details:

3.3 Winning Strategies Summary

Advanced Trading: How to Use “Time Cycles” to Improve Success Rates?

In the world of trading, following the trend is a fundamental principle. However, many traders often find themselves puzzled by the questions: “Which trend should I follow?” and “Why follow it?” The essence of technical analysis lies in helping traders identify the trading direction and determine the level of the trend, both of which are closely tied to time cycles.

1. Time Cycles

Traders can divide time frames into independent time cycles based on a 4–5x time difference.

2. Core Trading Cycle

If the hourly chart is used as the core trading time frame, then the daily chart serves as the larger time cycle, while the 15-minute chart represents the smaller time cycle. These time cycles are continuous, and trading should focus on the movements of the time frames directly above and below the core cycle. Avoid skipping directly from monthly charts to daily or hourly charts. Time cycles are the patterns through which we observe market movements.

3. Relationship Between Trends Across Different Time Cycles

Trends in different time cycles can sometimes contradict each other. A trend in a smaller time cycle may only represent a correction within a larger time cycle. Conversely, the failure of a breakout in a smaller time cycle might signal the end of a correction in the larger time cycle, presenting an entry opportunity. Therefore, traders must consider the trends across multiple time cycles comprehensively, rather than relying on a single cycle for judgment.

4. Fundamental Principles

• Larger time cycles constrain smaller ones: If the trend in the larger time cycle hasn’t concluded, the smaller cycle trend will not end either.
• Trends in smaller time cycles aggregate into the overall movement of the larger time cycle.

Time cycles play a critical role in trading. Traders need to clearly define different time cycles, focus on the core trading time frame and its related upper and lower cycles, and understand the relationships between trends in different cycles. Only by doing so can they truly follow the trend and improve their success rates in trading.

Note: Personal opinion, for reference only. Opportunities and risks abound, always do your research before investing.

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