Copy Trading Master’s Winning Strategies Review — Episode 74

Easy Copy, Smart Trade! Discover the winning strategies of our popular traders.

1. Copy Trading Master’s Introduction

User Nickname: BlingBling~

Trader’s Profile: https://www.lbank.com/copy-trading/lead-trader/LBA3D77565

Trading Style: Swing Trading

2. Trade Operation Recap

Short ETC with 5x leverage on cross mode. Opening Price: 34.109 USDT. Closing Price: 24.817 USDT. Profit Rate: +136.22%. As shown below:

3. Trade Review

3.1 Market Background

On December 16, 2024, during the Asian trading session, Ethereum quickly rose and broke its previous high of 4,090 USD, reaching a peak of 4,115 USD before declining. Unlike Ethereum, most altcoins did not follow suit, showing signs of market fatigue.

On December 17, Bitcoin Magazine reported that Microstrategy’s Bitcoin holdings had surpassed 20 billion USD in profits. On the same day, U.S. retail sales for November exceeded expectations with a 0.7% month-over-month increase. Analysts suggest that robust retail sales combined with a rebound in inflation might prompt the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts in January 2025. Following the data release, the U.S. dollar index briefly dipped, and U.S. Treasury yields narrowed their gains.

On December 18, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a rate cut from 4.5–4.75% to 4.25–4.5%, marking the third consecutive rate cut since March 2022. After a total of 525 basis points in rate hikes from March 2022 to July 2023, these three cuts have reduced rates by 100 basis points in total. Fed officials expect two 25 basis point cuts in 2025 and the same in 2026, aligning with current market expectations, which have cooled significantly from earlier predictions of more than six cuts next year.

On December 20, Arkham data revealed that Mt. Gox transferred 719.568 BTC to two new wallet addresses, valued at approximately 69.87 million USD. Additionally, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the November PCE price index rose from 2.3% last month to 2.4%, the highest level since July but below the expected 2.5%. The month-over-month increase was only 0.1%, below the anticipated 0.2%.

On January 7, 2025, minutes from the December FOMC meeting reflected concerns about higher-than-expected inflation and potential economic impacts from new fiscal policies under President Trump. Officials suggested slowing the pace of rate cuts.

On January 8, 2025, ADP reported December job growth of 122,000, significantly below expectations, highlighting ongoing uncertainties in the U.S. labor market.

3.2 Trade Analysis

From December 16, 2024, to January 9, 2025, the ETH daily chart showed a surge to the 4,000–4,100 USD range, followed by a rapid drop to 3,100 USD before rebounding to around 3,730 USD and declining again. ETH found support near 3,200 USD.

On December 16, during the Asian trading hours, Ethereum surged past 4,090 USD to a high of 4,115 USD before declining. This rise did not incite a similar reaction from most altcoins, which remained sluggish.

On that day, after ETC surged past 35 USD to a high of 35.19 USD, it quickly retreated. This was considered an opportune moment to initiate a short position when the price fell below 34.50 USD with weak rebound attempts, establishing a short position around 34.10 USD.

Subsequent market developments, including the Fed’s rate cut announcement on December 18 and the transfer of Bitcoins by Mt. Gox on December 20, influenced a brief market panic and a sharp decline in Ethereum to 3,115 USD before a quick recovery. The short position in ETC was maintained.

On January 7, 2025, the minutes from the Fed’s December 2024 monetary policy meeting expressed concerns over inflation exceeding expectations and the potential inflationary impact of policies following Trump’s election, suggesting a slower pace for future rate cuts.

Following the release of these minutes and unexpected slowdown in U.S. ADP employment data on January 8, which showed a significant deceleration in job growth, financial markets experienced further declines. This led to a sharp drop and rebound in cryptocurrency prices. Bitcoin and Ethereum found short-term bottoms at 92,600 and 3,220 USD, respectively.

On the 4-hour chart, after peaking on December 7, 2024, ETC’s price rapidly fell and broke the ascending trendline (illustrated by the blue dashed line in the chart). On December 12 and 16, ETC attempted to surpass 35 USD but was capped by the trendline, failing to rally further. On January 9, as ETC approached a low point on the left side of the chart, the short position was gradually closed out as depicted below:

3.3 Winning Strategies Summary

How to Utilize Trend Lines in Trading?

• Trend lines are a fundamental tool in technical analysis, though they typically offer accuracy less than 50%. They help identify the direction of the trend and potential trading opportunities but can sometimes fail, especially in range-bound markets.
• Functions of Trend Lines:
• Confirming Trends: An upward trend line indicates overall price increases, whereas a downward trend line indicates decreases.
• Support and Resistance: An upward trend line serves as support, and a downward trend line acts as resistance.
• Catching Breakouts: A price breakout through a trend line may signify a trend reversal or acceleration.

Trading Strategies:

• Buy at Support/Sell at Resistance: Consider trend-following trades when prices are near the trend line.
• Follow Breakouts: Establish positions in the direction of the breakout once the trend line is breached.
• Wait for Pullbacks: For higher success rates, enter trades after prices retest the trend line.

Considerations:

• The effectiveness of trend lines depends on the number of touchpoints and the time frame.
• Enhance accuracy by using additional indicators like moving averages and volume.
• Risk management is crucial; set reasonable stop-losses to safeguard investments.

Note: Personal opinion, for reference only. Opportunities and risks abound, always do your research before investing.

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