Copy Trading Master’s Winning Strategies Review — Episode 72
Easy Copy, Smart Trade! Discover the winning strategies of our popular traders.
- Copy Trading Master’s Introduction
User Nickname: Colin
Trader’s Profile: https://www.lbank.com/copy-trading/lead-trader/LBA3D77447
Trading Style: Swing Trading
2. Trade Operation Recap
Short FTM with 5x leverage on cross mode. Opening Price: 1.4366 USDT. Closing Price: 1.0242 USDT. Profit: +143.54%. As shown below:
3. Trade Review
3.1 Market Background
On December 13th (Friday), MicroStrategy announced its inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 Index effective December 23rd, symbolizing institutional recognition of its founder, Michael Saylor. According to documents disclosed by the SEC on December 16th, MicroStrategy acquired 15,350 BTC between December 9th and 15th at an average price of approximately $100,386 per BTC.
On December 16th during the Asian trading session, Bitcoin surged past its previous high of $104,500, reaching a peak of $106,500 before retreating. This Bitcoin rally did not trigger a significant follow-through in most altcoins, indicating market fatigue.
On December 17th, Bitcoin Magazine reported that MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings had generated profits exceeding $20 billion. That same day, U.S. retail sales for November exceeded expectations, growing by 0.7% month-over-month. Analysts noted that robust retail sales combined with warming inflation indicated that the Federal Reserve might pause rate cuts in January next year. Following the data release, the U.S. dollar index dipped briefly while U.S. bond yields narrowed their gains.
On December 18th (Wednesday), after the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting, it announced a 25-basis-point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range from 4.5%-4.75% to 4.25%-4.5%. This marked the third consecutive rate cut following a cumulative hike of 525 basis points from March 2022 to July last year. The Fed projected two additional 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025 and the same reduction in 2026, aligning with market expectations of two rate cuts next year.
On December 20, Arkm data showed that Mt. Gox transferred 719,568 BTC to two new wallet addresses, worth about $69.87 million. On the same day, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released data showing that the U.S. PCE price index rose from 2.3% in the previous month to 2.4% in November, the highest level since July, but lower than the expected 2.5%; the month-on-month growth was 0.1%, lower than the expected value of 0.2%.
3.2 Trade Analysis
From November 23 to December 24, the 4-hour chart of Ethereum broke through $4,000 after continuous rise, but failed to reach the top for the second time, and then quickly fell to around $3,100 before rebounding. Trading background as shown below:
On December 13th (Friday), MicroStrategy announced its inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 Index effective December 23rd, symbolizing institutional recognition of its founder, Michael Saylor. According to documents disclosed by the SEC on December 16th, MicroStrategy acquired 15,350 BTC between December 9th and 15th at an average price of approximately $100,386 per BTC.
On December 16th during the Asian trading session, Bitcoin surged past its previous high of $104,500, reaching a peak of $106,500 before retreating. This Bitcoin rally did not trigger a significant follow-through in most altcoins, indicating market fatigue.
On the 4-hour chart, FTM has been fluctuating upward since it broke through $0.8 on November 21. On December 16, FTM reached a high of $1.48. Although it hit a recent high, the price stopped at $1.50. Consider shorting FTM at this time.
When the price falls below $1.45 continuously, open a short position around $1.44.
On December 17, U.S. retail sales in November exceeded expectations and grew by 0.7% month-on-month. Analysts said that strong retail sales and rising inflation indicate that the Fed may suspend interest rate cuts in January next year. After the data was released, the U.S. dollar index fell in the short term, and the increase in U.S. Treasury yields narrowed. Bitcoin rose sharply to $108,000 that day, and then fell sharply. At this time, FTM rebounded weakly and continued to hold.
On December 18, the Federal Reserve announced after the FOMC meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee that the target range of the federal funds rate would be reduced from 4.5% to 4.75% to 4.25% to 4.5%, and decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting. However, the Fed officials issued another press conference to ease the hint that the number of interest rate cuts in the future may be lower than the market expected. On that day, the U.S. stock and cryptocurrency markets ushered in a large-scale decline.
On December 20, Arkm data showed that Mt. Gox transferred 719.568 BTC to two new wallet addresses. The cryptocurrency market is worried that Mt. Gox users will continue to sell BTC, which will accelerate the market decline. On the same day, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released data showing that the U.S. PCE index rose slightly in November, but was lower than expected. On the “Triple Witching Day” of the U.S. stock market, the U.S. PCE inflation supported the rebound of the U.S. stock market, and the cryptocurrency market also rebounded.
On December 24, on the eve of Christmas, the European and American markets have entered the “holiday mode”. Shorting FTM has accumulated a certain proportion of profits, and some positions are closed at this time. As shown below:
3.3 Winning Strategies Summary
Matching Take-Profit, Stop-Loss, and Strategy Models
Fixed Amount (or Percentage) Stop-Loss: This strategy involves exiting an investment when its losses reach a predetermined amount to prevent further losses. The goal is to limit losses within a manageable range when an investment decision proves to be erroneous.
Trailing Stop-Loss: A more aggressive stop-loss strategy designed to let profits ride with price movements. The stop-loss price adjusts automatically in response to favorable price fluctuations. By setting a reasonable trailing retracement spread, this strategy helps avoid being prematurely stopped out by market volatility.
Phased Take-Profit: This strategy involves taking profits in stages by partially closing positions. It is a prudent approach when investors achieve their expected returns but remain uncertain about the continuation of the trend. By partially locking in profits, investors secure gains while allowing the remaining position to benefit from further favorable trends until the entire position is closed.
Take-profit and stop-loss strategies are inherently based on the concept of sunk costs (initial costs). Rigid application of these strategies is unlikely to yield effective results. Instead, they should be adapted to expectations of price movements derived from different theoretical foundations.
From the perspective of trend theory models and mean-reversion models:
Trend Theory Models lean more toward stop-loss rather than take-profit. This aligns with the philosophy of “cutting losses and letting profits run.”
Mean-Reversion Models favor take-profit over stop-loss, adhering to the principle of “taking gains when available.”
Volatility and unpredictability are intrinsic features of the market, forming the very foundation of its existence and the primary sources of trading risk. These traits are unchangeable. Since trading inherently lacks certainty, all analyses and predictions represent probabilities rather than guarantees. Therefore, trading decisions based on these probabilities will always involve uncertainty.
Note: Personal opinion, for reference only. Opportunities and risks abound, always do your research before investing.
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