Copy Trading Master’s Winning Strategies Review — Episode 71
Easy Copy, Smart Trade! Discover the winning strategies of our popular traders.
- Copy Trading Master’s Introduction
User Nickname: BlingBling~
Trader’s Profile: https://www.lbank.com/copy-trading/lead-trader/LBA3D77565
Trading Style: Swing Trading
2. Trade Operation Recap
Short ENS with 5x leverage on cross mode, opening at 48.351 USDT and closing at 41.227 USDT, achieving a profit of +73.67%. As shown below:
3. Trade Review
3.1 Market Background
On December 6th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 227,000 jobs were added in November, surpassing expectations of 220,000, and revised October’s figure from 12,000 to 36,000. The unemployment rate for November was 4.2%, above both expectations and the prior month’s 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 4% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month, both exceeding expectations of 3.9% and 0.3%, respectively.
On December 11th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November increased by 2.7% year-over-year, in line with expectations, with a month-over-month rise of 0.3%, up from 0.2% in October, marking the highest level since April.
With the acceleration in both year-over-year and month-over-month CPI, core CPI remained unchanged from October, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts in December.
On December 13th, MicroStrategy announced its inclusion in the NASDAQ 100 Index, effective December 23rd, marking a significant institutional endorsement for its founder, Michael Saylor. From December 9th to 15th, MicroStrategy purchased 15,350 Bitcoins at an average price of approximately $100,386 each.
On December 17th, Bitcoin Magazine reported that MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings had surpassed a $20 billion profit.
On the same day, U.S. retail sales for November exceeded expectations, increasing by 0.7% month-over-month, signaling strong consumer spending, which, coupled with rising inflation, led analysts to predict that the Federal Reserve may pause rate cuts in January. Following the release, the U.S. Dollar Index fell, and the rise in U.S. Treasury yields moderated.
3.2 Trade Analysis
From December 1st to December 18th, the Bitcoin 4-hour chart displayed rapid rises followed by a breakthrough above $100,000, after which it swiftly fell back to around $92,000 before rebounding above $100,000. The trade background is illustrated below:
On December 11th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November CPI, showing a 2.7% year-over-year increase, meeting expectations. The monthly increase of 0.3% was up from 0.2% in October, marking the highest level since April.
On December 13th, MicroStrategy announced its inclusion in the NASDAQ 100 Index and revealed the acquisition of 15,350 Bitcoin at an average price of $100,386 between December 9th and 15th. This led to Bitcoin holding above the $100,000 level, eventually rising to around $108,000.
On the daily chart, ENS saw rapid growth after breaking above $21 on November 25th, peaking at $47.1 on November 30th before rapidly falling. On December 15th, ENS surged again, breaking the November high at $47 and reaching around $50.5 before slowly declining. As shown below:
On December 16th, during the Asian trading session, Bitcoin rapidly surged, breaking its previous high of $104,500 and reaching a peak of $106,500 before retracing. While Bitcoin rose, the majority of altcoins did not follow suit, showing signs of market fatigue.
On the same day, ENS quickly broke above $50 but immediately retraced. This was the signal to consider shorting ENS. When it fell below $50 and $49, a short position was initiated at around $48.
On December 17th, after strong U.S. retail sales for November, coupled with signs of inflation heating up, analysts predicted that the Federal Reserve might pause rate cuts in January. Following this, Bitcoin surged to $108,000 before quickly dropping. ENS showed no significant rebound, prompting the continued holding of the short position.
On December 18th, considering the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve’s December meeting and the potential for significant market volatility, the decision was made to exit the short position after accumulating a solid profit, as shown below:
3.3 Winning Strategies Summary
How to Utilize Expected Differentials in Trading?
“Expectation” refers to predictions of future outcomes based on the uncertainty of changes in market conditions. In economics, it refers to how economic agents gather information on uncertain factors, make forecasts about related variables, and make decisions that align with their expected outcomes to achieve their goals.
The occurrence of expected differentials typically happens when the market anticipates or predicts future price movements. At these junctures, traders should pay close attention to how the market’s forecast aligns or diverges from their own. Expected differentials only emerge when market movements fall short of or exceed expectations.
To utilize expected differentials effectively, traders must:
- Understand the general market expectations (the consensus view).
- Identify the gap between their own expectations and the market’s, and assess whether it is worth taking action (opportunity assessment).
- Refine their own expectations and logical reasoning to avoid focusing on low-probability events that could lead to a misalignment with the market’s direction (probability advantage).
Note: Personal opinion, for reference only. Opportunities and risks abound, always do your research before investing.
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