Copy Trading Master’s Winning Strategies Review — Episode 61
Easy Copy, Smart Trade! Discover the winning strategies of our popular traders.
- Copy Trading Master’s Introduction
User Nickname: BlingBling~
Trader’s Profile: https://www.lbank.com/copy-trading/lead-trader?id=LBA3D77565
Trading Style: Swing Trading
2. Trade Operation Recap
Using 20x leverage with a cross margin to short DOGE, we opened at 0.12953 USDT and closed at 0.11369 USDT, achieving a remarkable single trade profit rate of +244.58%. See the image below for more details.
3. Trade Review
3.1 Market Background
On September 18, at 2:00 PM EDT, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut, marking the first reduction since 2020. The dot plot suggests plans for an additional 50 basis point cut later this year; however, opinions among officials differ: 10 anticipate a total reduction of 100 basis points or more in 2024, while 9 expect 75 basis points or less. Notably, Governor Michelle Bowman dissented, preferring a 25 basis point cut.
On September 23, S&P Global reported that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the third consecutive month in September, hitting a 15-month low. The services sector’s expansion also slowed, leading to a decline in the composite PMI. Early September PMI data indicate a slight slowdown in U.S. business activity growth, with deteriorating expectations and a significant rise in the price index.
On September 26, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3% in the second quarter, slightly higher than the anticipated 2.9%. The core PCE price index rose by 2.8%, matching expectations and previous revised figures.
On September 27, Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party held its leadership election, where 67-year-old former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba secured victory in the second round of voting, making him the new party leader. He will succeed Fumio Kishida as Japan’s 102nd Prime Minister on October 1. Analysts suggest that Ishiba will likely continue Kishida’s key domestic policies, backing Japan’s reflationary efforts. On the international stage, particularly in foreign and defense policy, Ishiba is expected to take a conservative and hawkish approach. His economic stance could signal further upward movement for both the yen and Japanese government bond yields.
On October 4, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a gain of 254,000 jobs in September, significantly surpassing the anticipated 150,000 and exceeding the predictions of all surveyed economists. This was the largest increase since March. The unemployment rate fell unexpectedly, while wages rose on a year-over-year basis. Following the release of the non-farm payroll report, some media outlets called it an exceptionally strong showing: Non-farm payrolls increased by 254,000 in September, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. The combined upward revisions for July and August totaled 72,000. This robust report could reduce the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its November FOMC meeting.
3.2 Trade Analysis
Between September 21 and October 9, Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart displayed a period of consolidation, followed by an upward breakout and a subsequent correction. Prices fluctuated between $66,500 and $60,000, as shown in the picture.
On September 18, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut, which slightly exceeded market expectations.
On September 26, U.S. real GDP for the second quarter posted a 3% annualized quarterly growth, just above the anticipated 2.9%. In the first quarter, GDP grew by 1.6%. The PCE price index for the second quarter also rose by 2.5%, in line with expectations.
The Fed’s unexpectedly larger rate cut sparked a volatile rally in the cryptocurrency market, despite some skepticism.
On September 27, Shigeru Ishiba, 67, won Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party leadership election in the second round of voting, making him the party leader.
Ishiba’s victory was seen as a continuation of his stance on “normalizing yen interest rates,” interpreted by markets as support for further yen rate hikes. At this time, global liquidity risks began to emerge, and the cryptocurrency market reached a critical peak.
That same day, Bitcoin consolidated around $66,000, spiked briefly, and then pulled back. Meanwhile, Dogecoin (DOGE), one of the strongest performers, saw its price surge from $0.12 to around $0.13, forming a double-top (“M head”) pattern. Technically, the top was confirmed, signaling a potential short-selling opportunity.
On September 28 and 29, Bitcoin initially moved within a narrow range but then dropped sharply. Around the same time, the cryptocurrency market was gripped by panic selling.
On October 4, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September, significantly exceeding the expected 150,000. Analysts quickly pointed out that this strong non-farm payroll report dampened hopes for a 50-basis-point rate cut in November.
After the non-farm data was released, Bitcoin was expected to enter a period of range-bound rebound. As Bitcoin began to recover, the broader cryptocurrency market saw a modest lift, and on October 7, a portion of the short positions in DOGE were closed.
3.3 Winning Strategies Summary
On September 27, Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party held its leadership election, and 67-year-old former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba secured victory in the second round, becoming the party’s leader. Anticipations of tightening yen liquidity led the market to offload risk assets. Shortly after, in early October, the release of strong U.S. non-farm payroll data for September weakened expectations for a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, triggering a rebound in the cryptocurrency market amidst volatility.
Technical analysis can sometimes precede the fundamentals, but it can also lag behind. Statistically speaking, every strategy has its own “probability,” and no method can perfectly predict all market movements. In essence, investing is a contest with uncertainty. Much remains unknowable, and probability theory provides a way to understand these complexities — ultimately, it all comes down to managing the odds.
It’s important to trust in the power of common sense: see the silver lining during pessimistic periods, and never forget the lurking risks in optimistic times. Risk and reward are always intertwined.
Note: Personal opinion, for reference only. Opportunities and risks abound, always do your research before investing.
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