Copy Trading Master’s Winning Strategies Review — Episode 58
Easy Copy, Smart Trade! Discover the winning strategies of our popular traders.
- Copy Trading Master’s Introduction
User Nickname: BlingBling~
Trader’s Profile: https://www.lbank.com/copy-trading/lead-trader?id=LBA3D77565
Trading Style: Swing Trading
2. Trade Operation Recap
Long FTM with 10x leverage on cross mode, opening at 0.4231 USDT, closing at 0.57 USDT, achieving a profit of +347.11%.
3. Trade Review
3.1 Market Background
On September 5th, data from ADP Research Institute and Stanford’s Digital Economy Lab showed that U.S. ADP employment for August increased by only 99,000, the lowest since January 2021, significantly below the expected 145,000, and down from the previous figure of 122,000.
On September 6th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payrolls for August increased by 142,000, falling short of the 165,000 expected. July’s data was revised down sharply from 114,000 to 89,000, and June’s data was also revised down by 61,000.
On September 11th, U.S. inflation data for August showed a year-over-year increase of 2.5%, in line with expectations but down from the previous 2.9%, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline and the lowest rate since February 2021. Month-over-month inflation rose 0.2%, matching both the forecast and the previous month’s figure.
On September 18th, at 2 PM ET, the Federal Reserve announced its September interest rate decision, cutting rates by 50 basis points. The dot plot suggested that the Fed could cut rates by another 50 basis points this year, although the situation remained contentious: 10 officials expected rate cuts of 100 basis points or more in 2024, while 9 officials forecast cuts of 75 basis points or less. For the first time since 2005, a Fed governor dissented, with Governor Bowman advocating for only a 25 basis point cut.
3.2 Trade Analysis
From August 22nd to September 18th, Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart showed a rise forming an “M-top,” followed by a steady decline to $54,200, and then a recovery trend, as illustrated below:
On September 6th, U.S. employment data fell short of expectations, with non-farm payroll growth significantly below the forecast. This coincided with further drops in inflation, providing ample justification for the Fed to cut rates.
On September 11th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 2.5% year-over-year, in line with expectations, down significantly from the previous 2.9%, marking the fifth consecutive month of slowing inflation and the lowest level since February 2021. Month-over-month, CPI rose by 0.2%, also matching both expectations and the previous figure.
The U.S. employment data for August was lower than expected, while inflation continued to decline. The Federal Reserve has sufficient reasons to cut interest rates.
By September 8th, the daily Bitcoin chart (as shown below) indicated stabilization, signaling a clear rebound. This was an opportunity for long positions.
On September 9th, FTM surged rapidly from $0.41 to around $0.42, with $0.42 marking a previous high on the 4-hour chart. After breaking this level, FTM showed no significant retracement and continued to exhibit bullish momentum. A long position was opened at around $0.423.
Following this, the broader cryptocurrency market entered a period of overall upward movement. On September 18th, at 2 PM ET, with the Fed’s rate decision approaching, the FTM long position was closed early to mitigate risks associated with market uncertainty.
In hindsight, closing the FTM position may have seemed premature. The magnitude of the Fed’s rate cut was uncertain, and ultimately, the Fed adopted a more dovish and aggressive 50 basis point cut. Major assets experienced volatility following the Fed’s September announcement.
3.3 Winning Strategies Summary
Before the Fed’s first rate cut of 2024, strategists were exhausted by the debate over whether the cut would be “25 basis points or 50.” In swing trading, it’s essential to capitalize on high-certainty opportunities and exit the market in a timely manner.
Note: Personal opinion, for reference only. Opportunities and risks abound, always do your research before investing.
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