Copy Trading Master’s Winning Strategies Review — Episode 53
Easy Follow, Smart Trade! Discover the winning strategies of our popular traders.
- Copy Trading Master’s Introduction
User Nickname: Online
Trader’s Profile: https://www.lbank.com/copy-trading/lead-trader?id=LBA3D77455
Trading Style: Swing Trading
2. Trade Operation Recap
Short ETH with 50x leverage on cross mode, opening at 2,703.5 USDT, closing at 2,545.8 USDT, achieving a profit of +291.65%.
3. Trade Review
3.1 Market Background
On Friday, August 2, U.S. July non-farm payrolls saw a sharp decline from the previous figure of 179,000 to 114,000, significantly below the expected 175,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level in three years, triggering the recession indicator with a 100% accuracy rate — the Sahm Rule.
On August 6, JPMorgan issued a warning, noting that the unwinding process of yen carry trades had only been halfway completed. Since the yen remains one of the most undervalued currencies, there is still room for further unwinding of recent carry trades. Arindam Sandilya, co-head of global FX strategy at JPMorgan, told the media, “In speculative investments, at least 50–60% of carry trade unwinding has been completed.”
On Thursday, August 8, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 3 stood at 233,000, lower than the expected 240,000 and down from the previous 249,000, marking the largest weekly decline in a year.
The weak July non-farm payroll report increased the risk of a hard landing for the U.S. economy, triggering widespread risk-off sentiment. This risk aversion led to sharp declines in U.S. and Japanese stock markets. Subsequently, officials from the Bank of Japan reassured the market, stating that there would be no rate hikes during periods of market instability, after which the cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp drop followed by a rebound.
Later, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his support for cryptocurrency mining, pushing BTC further above $62,000. Additionally, the Ukrainian army’s counteroffensive into Russian territory created short-term safe-haven demand. Cryptocurrencies are in a strong rebound after a major decline.
3.2 Trade Analysis
From August 1 to August 13, on the Bitcoin 4-hour chart, after consecutive declines, there was a choppy rebound followed by another drop. As shown in the chart:
On Sunday, July 28, at the 2024 Nashville Bitcoin Conference, former U.S. President Donald Trump gave a speech, proposing a series of policies and plans aimed at making the U.S. a global cryptocurrency hub. Trump’s participation in the cryptocurrency conference further pushed BTC close to $70,000. After that, the cryptocurrency market began to gradually decline.
On July 31, the Bank of Japan announced its latest interest rate decision, raising rates by 15 basis points, bringing the policy rate to 0.15%-0.25%. The Bank of Japan passed the rate decision with a 7–2 vote, while the market had expected no change.
On Friday, August 2, U.S. July non-farm payrolls saw a sharp drop from the previous 179,000 to 114,000, significantly below the expected 175,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level in three years.
The Bank of Japan’s unexpected rate hike put pressure on international carry trades, and subsequently, U.S. July employment data came in far below expectations. These macroeconomic shifts caused a panic in U.S. stock markets, with financial markets experiencing a significant pullback.
On Thursday, August 8, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that initial jobless claims for the week ending August 3 were 233,000, lower than the expected 240,000 and down from the previous 249,000, marking the largest weekly decline in a year.
On August 6, after falling from its high, Ethereum began to rebound. On the 1-hour chart, ETH prices ranged between $2,414 and $2,550. Later, BTC was boosted by news that Russia had legalized mining, pushing the price up to $62,000.
On August 11, ETH quickly surged to $2,700, even though the cryptocurrency market did not see any obvious positive catalysts. It is possible that changes on the front lines of the Russia-Ukraine war led to a demand for safe-haven assets in Europe. ETH faced selling pressure around $2,720, and the price did not rise further. At this point, it could be considered to open a short position near the resistance level above and short ETH.
As the overall market pulled back, prices gradually fell. When ETH dropped to the previous resistance level on the left side ($2,500), a rebound began to take shape. At this point, the short position was closed. As shown in the chart:
3.3 Winning Strategies Summary
Since August, the U.S. financial markets have seen a significant pullback, and the cryptocurrency market has been heavily impacted. The shocks to the market and macroeconomy have severely tested investors’ resolve.
For a choppy market, the typical strategy is to identify the central level of the price range. A price range refers to the rectangular area formed by the high and low points of a choppy market. The central level of the price range is the midpoint between the highs and lows.
If the market price falls below the central level of the recent price range, a long position should be taken near the next low, with the stop-loss set below the lowest point. If the market price rises above the central level of the recent price range, a short position should be taken near the next high, with the stop-loss set above the highest point.
It’s important to note that at the end of a choppy phase and the beginning of a trending phase, a prolonged consolidation can lead to a sharp rise or fall. Sometimes, it is difficult to distinguish between a choppy market and a trending one, so it’s essential to use the highest and lowest points of the price range as stop-loss reference points.
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