Copy Trading Master’s Winning Strategies Review — Episode 35
Easy Follow, Smart Trade! Discover the winning strategies of our popular traders.
- Copy Trading Master’s Introduction
User Nickname: Online
Trader’s Profile: https://www.lbank.com/copy-trading/lead-trader?id=LBA3D77455
Trading Style: Swing Trading
2. Trade Operation Recap
Long BTCUSDT with 50x leverage on cross mode, opening at 40,057 USDT, closing at 64,528 USDT, achieving a profit of +3,054.6%. As shown below:
3. Trade Review
3.1 Market Background
On January 3, 2024, the investment bank TD Cowen suggested that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would approve a Bitcoin spot ETF before the January 10 deadline due to “political necessity.”
On January 10, the SEC’s official Twitter account announced that all 12 proposals for Bitcoin spot ETFs had been approved. However, just minutes later, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler denied it on his Twitter account, claiming that the SEC had been hacked, and the post regarding Bitcoin spot ETF approval was fraudulent.
On January 11 (Asia time), the SEC website showed that SEC Chairman Gary Gensler issued a handwritten statement indicating that the SEC officially approved several Bitcoin spot ETPs (including ETFs) for listing and trading.
On April 20 at 00:09 (UTC), Bitcoin completed its fourth halving at block height 840,000, reducing the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
However, a team of analysts from JPMorgan projected a possible crash in Bitcoin prices after the halving, based on factors such as the costs for miners, the number of open futures contracts, and the price correlation between Bitcoin and gold.
3.2 Trade Analysis
From January 23 to April 25, Bitcoin’s daily chart showed price fluctuations followed by a steady upward trend within a channel. Local peaks appeared before the Bitcoin halving event. By the time of the halving, Bitcoin was near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating expected profit realization. See image:
On January 11, Bitcoin’s spot ETF was officially approved by the SEC and began trading. However, Bitcoin prices did not continue to rise. Instead, Bitcoin fell from $48,000 to as low as $38,500, a decline of over 20%. Later, Bitcoin stabilized around $40,000, providing an opportunity to establish long-term positions.
As Bitcoin slowly climbed to $45,000, it crossed above the Bollinger Band’s midline, indicating a significant upward wave.
Around March 10, the cryptocurrency market was particularly strong, with Bitcoin prices reaching around $73,000. With 40 days left before the 4th Bitcoin halving, prices surpassed historical highs earlier than expected. The general market consensus suggested that Bitcoin could reach $80,000 by the time of the halving.
However, expectations didn’t always align with reality. As U.S. economic data, including employment and inflation, was released in March, the viewpoint that the Fed would cut interest rates in June was disproven, leading to broader oscillations in Bitcoin prices between $60,000 and $70,000.
In April, Middle East geopolitical conflicts arose, and leading tech stocks like NVIDIA’s share price stalled at $1,000. In this weakening market, sudden military conflicts led to a surge in gold prices, while Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies became targets for investors to sell off.
After April 20, when Bitcoin successfully completed its halving, some long-term positions were closed.
3.3 Winning Strategies Summary
Since the launch of the Grayscale Trust and with the SEC’s approval of Bitcoin ETFs, cryptocurrency market volatility has increased significantly. Wall Street’s influence has reached every corner of the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin ETFs exhibit higher trading volumes during U.S. stock market hours, with more pronounced price swings. This pattern extends across the entire cryptocurrency market. Notably, Bitcoin experiences significant volatility around the release of important U.S. economic data or speeches by Fed officials.
In long-term trading, having clear expectations is crucial. Establish initial positions at high or low points of market fluctuations, and once expectations are either confirmed or disproven, it might be time to close long-term trades. In real-world markets, initial positions might hit multiple stop-losses; however, once a trend emerges, it usually persists. At this point, it is crucial to hold on to positions and wait for expectations to be met.
Reviewing a long-term trade, you need to accept less than a 40% success rate, which means that out of 10 trades, at least six might result in losses, two may yield small gains, and the final one or two might produce substantial profits. That’s the reality.
Finally, if you miss the ideal exit point in a long-term trade, follow your trading rules to manage positions and wait for the next entry signal.
Note: Personal opinion, for reference only. Opportunities and risks abound, always do your research before investing.
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