Copy Trading Master’s Winning Strategies Review — Episode 30
Easy Follow, Smart Trade! Discover the winning strategies of our popular traders.
- Copy Trading Master’s Introduction
User Nickname: Wallis
Trader’s Profile: https://www.lbank.com/copy-trading/lead-trader?id=LBA3D77414
Trading Style: Swing Trading
2. Trade Operation Recap
Short BTCUSDT with 50x leverage on cross mode (medium-to-long term trading), opening at 72,756.3 USDT, closing at 62,852.4 USDT, achieving a profit of +680.62%. See the image below:
3. Trade Review
3.1 Market Background
On March 5th, the U.S. ISM data indicated a slowdown in the expansion rate of the service sector in February, partly due to employment metrics, with a noticeable drop in the prices paid index, while orders and business activities increased.
The U.S. service sector ISM index for February stood at 52.6, missing expectations of 53, down from January’s 53.4, with 50 marking the threshold between expansion and contraction. The U.S. ISM service sector PMI has consistently stayed above 50 for over a year.
On the same day, the U.S. February Markit services PMI final value hit a new low since December 2022 at 52.3, marking the 13th consecutive month of expansion; the composite PMI for February reached a new high since June 2023 at 52.5, also expanding for the 13th consecutive month.
On March 12th, data from the U.S. Labor Department showed that February’s CPI rose by 3.2% year-over-year, surpassing both the previous value and expectations of 3.1%, hitting a new high since December 2022; month-over-month, CPI rose by 0.4%, matching forecasts and above the previous value of 0.3%, indicating a rebound and potential acceleration of U.S. inflation.
The above-expectations core CPI for February reinforced the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on interest rate cuts. Inflation data won’t alter the Fed’s plans to keep rates steady, but it heightened focus on whether and how officials might signal a change in their outlook for rate cuts this year.
Following the CPI announcement, the probability of the Fed standing pat in March remained unchanged, while the likelihood of a June rate cut increased to 72.4%.
On March 14th, data from the U.S. Department of Labor indicated that February’s PPI heated up unexpectedly, with a year-over-year increase of 1.6%, far above expectations of 0.9% and the previous value of 1.2%; month-over-month, PPI accelerated to a 0.6% increase, double the forecast and up from the previous 0.3%.
The unexpected warmth in the U.S. February PPI, following CPI, continued to suppress expectations for rate cuts.
On March 19th, the Bank of Japan announced its latest interest rate decision, raising the benchmark rate from -0.1% to 0–0.1%, marking the first hike since 2007 and ending an eight-year era of negative interest rates.
3.2 Trade Analysis
From March 1st to March 20th, Bitcoin’s daily chart showcased continuous rises followed by rapid declines, as shown below:
On the daily chart, Bitcoin rose to $63,000 on March 1st, followed by a brief adjustment before reaching new highs. It then continued to decline sharply, dropping over $10,000 from its peak, with a short-term oversold rebound expected to kickstart in the market.
On March 14th, Bitcoin swiftly broke through $73,000, then fell back to around $72,000. On the hourly timeframe, a bearish divergence on the MACD indicator appeared, and a triangular pattern was forming. It was time to open positions to short BTC.
Following the U.S. stock market opening that day, Bitcoin ETFs experienced collective drops, with IBIT falling over 5%. The cryptocurrency ETF market saw its first rapid decline, followed by Bitcoin’s high-level drop.
On March 19th, during the Asian session, the Bank of Japan announced raising the benchmark rate from -0.1% to 0–0.1%, ending its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy, and ceasing the purchase of risk assets like Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). Following the announcement, risk assets plummeted.
On March 20th, Bitcoin plummeted, with prices dropping to a low of $60,700. In the short term, prices could not fall further below the $60,000 integer mark. It was time to close positions and exit the trade, as illustrated below:
3.3 Winning Strategies Summary
In swing trading, it’s essential to consider the impact of macro policy changes.
Note: Personal opinion, for reference only. Opportunities and risks abound, always do your research before investing.
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