Copy Trading Master’s Winning Strategies Review — Episode 23
Easy Follow, Smart Trade! Discover the winning strategies of our popular traders.
- Copy Trading Master’s Introduction
User Nickname: @Onlooker
Trader’s Profile: https://www.lbank.com/zh-TW/copy-trading/lead-trader/?id=LBA3D77490
Trading Style: Swing Trading
2. Trade Operation Recap
Long BTCUSDT with 50x leverage in cross mode (medium-to-long term trading), opening at 40,469.1 USDT, closing at 43,360.2 USDT, achieving a profit of +357.19%. See the chart below:
3. Trade Review
3.1 Market Background
On January 23, 2024, a new court document revealed that FTX’s sister company, Alameda Research, dropped its lawsuit against Grayscale Investments after converting its flagship trust product into an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF).
According to private data reviewed by CoinDesk and information from two insiders, since January 11, FTX’s bankruptcy liquidation department has sold 22 million shares of GBTC trust, reducing FTX’s GBTC holdings to zero (valued at nearly $1 billion).
On January 25, the U.S. government announced plans to sell approximately $130 million worth of Bitcoin, previously seized in the high-profile “Silk Road” investigation.
Data released by the US Department of Commerce on January 26 showed that the US real GDP for the fourth quarter grew at an annualized rate of 3.3%, a slowdown from the previous quarter’s 4.9% but far exceeding the market expectation of 2%.
The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.5% throughout 2023, surpassing Wall Street’s expectations at the beginning of the year, compared to 1.9% in 2022. Also released quarterly inflation data indicated the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index rose 2.8% year-over-year, slowing from the previous value of 3.1% but exceeding the expected 2.5%.
Following the SEC’s approval of the spot Bitcoin in early January, the short-term bullish expectations for the cryptocurrency market have been realized. Simultaneously, FTX affiliates liquidated $1 billion worth of GBTC shares.
3.2 Trade Analysis
From January 22 to January 30, the Ethereum daily chart showed rapid declines followed by wide oscillations as below:
On January 2, 2024, BTC surged to around 45,000 USD (on that day, BTC futures contracts traded on CME were priced over 1,400 USD higher than Coinbase spot prices), resulting in a significant price increase. Subsequently, BTC quickly dropped to around 40,000 USD, causing over 600 million USD in liquidations from cryptocurrency futures contracts in a single day.
On January 8, Gary Gensler, chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), issued a special warning to the cryptocurrency investment community on the social network platform X (Twitter). Gensler’s advice came at a critical moment when the SEC was expected to decide on Bitcoin ETF applications. His advice was seen as an attempt to alert investors to the potential risks associated with cryptocurrencies before introducing regulated investment tools like Bitcoin ETFs.
On January 10, a Bitcoin ETF was approved by the US SEC, and the following day BTC briefly surged to around 49,000 USD. After peaking, it dropped to a low of 41,500 USD; following a brief rebound, the cryptocurrency market began a slow decline. Bitcoin stabilized in the short term after falling to 40,000 USD, making it an opportune time to buy.
On January 23, Bitcoin fell again, reaching a low near 38,700 USD, causing market panic; however, in the following two days, BTC’s daily candlestick showed a “doji star,” indicating a brief stabilization in the cryptocurrency market.
Subsequently, with the publication of US GDP data, the US stock market surged, boosting market confidence. The cryptocurrency market experienced a single-day increase of over 5%, and market sentiment began to recover.
As BTC prices continued to rise, approaching the upper edge of the box (44,000 USD) on the 4-hour chart, it was crucial for swing traders to take timely profits and exit, leading to position closing.
3.3 Winning Strategies Summary
In swing trading, it’s important to monitor changes in expectations; once the good news is fully priced in, it becomes a bearish signal.
Note: Personal opinion, for reference only. Opportunities and risks abound, always do your research before investing.
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